Mongolian coal shipments to China’s key border port of Gantsmod have remained strong recently, as port-based trading houses accelerate imports to meet this year’s border crossing targets.

⚓ Shipment Surge

Coal truck traffic into Gantsmod port averaged over 1,200 units per day between July 28-31, marking a 26.6% increase from the same period in June and a 6.1% rise compared to last year. Deliveries to Gantsmod are expected to stay elevated through August.

• ❓ How is the Export? Mongolia’s total exports in H1 2025 fell by $1.3 billion year-on-year to $6.6 billion. This decline was primarily driven by a $2.1 billion drop in coal exports, highlighting coal’s critical role, it accounts for 38.9% of Mongolia’s total export value.
• 🌠 In H1 2024, Mongolia exported 39.4 million tonnes of hard coal worth approximately $4.68 billion. In the same period of 2025, exports dropped sharply to 35.1 million tonnes, valued at about $2.1 billion, a volume decline of 4.3 million tonnes (11%) and a revenue plunge of $2.6 billion (55%).

🧱 Prices Take a Hit, Impacting Revenues

Coal prices fell from roughly $103 per tonne in 2024 to about $99–$100 per tonne in early 2025, a 20%–27% drop. This price decline has severely hit export revenues, resulting in over $2 billion less earnings compared to the previous year’s first half. Coal plays a critical role in Mongolia’s economy, representing nearly 39% of export earnings. This makes any price or volume decline a significant challenge. The ongoing market slump is testing Mongolia’s trade balance and budget revenues.

Looking Ahead… While shipments remain steady, persistent pressure from falling prices and global demand volatility is expected to continue. In 2024, Mongolia set a record by exporting 83.7 million tonnes of coal. However, due to this year’s global market downturn, coal exports are projected to weaken significantly. Global market fluctuations are inevitable, but authorities must manage fiscal budgets prudently to avoid setting overly optimistic revenue targets.